Thursday, August 1, 2013

"'Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?”


Imagine that we are facing a really significant decision, which could fundamentally affect our personal life, or could determine the future of our career. Maybe we are thinking about "stretching your finances" to buy a bigger house. Or maybe thinking of introducing a change which we know could "cannibalize" existing situation .
Perhaps we are done the numbers, and these seem OK. But deep down, we dread what could go wrong. After all, no one has a foolproof vision of the future, and while we may have strong instincts as to how things may develop, any single projection of the future is clearly vulnerable to disruption by a range of different factors.
Scenario  helps us bring these fears into the open and gives us a rational and professional framework for exploring them.
Using it, we can make decisions in the context of the different futures that may come to pass. The act of creating scenarios forces us to challenge our assumptions about the future. By shaping our plans and decisions based on the most likely scenarios, we can ensure that our decisions are sound even if circumstances change.

Imagine that you're facing a really significant decision, which could fundamentally affect your personal life, or could determine the future of your business. Maybe you're thinking about "stretching your finances" to buy a bigger house. Or maybe you're thinking of launching a new product which you know could "cannibalize" existing sales.
Perhaps you've done the numbers, and these seem OK. But deep down, you dread what could go wrong. After all, no one has a foolproof vision of the future, and while you may have strong instincts as to how things may develop, any single projection of the future is clearly vulnerable to disruption by a range of different factors.
Scenario Analysis helps you bring these fears into the open and gives you a rational and professional framework for exploring them.
Using it, you can make decisions in the context of the different futures that may come to pass. The act of creating scenarios forces you to challenge your assumptions about the future. By shaping your plans and decisions based on the most likely scenarios, you can ensure that your decisions are sound even if circumstances change.
- See more at: http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newSTR_98.htm#sthash.gShPaVpM.dpuf

2 comments:

  1. Well put. I like the way this reads, and especially "any single projection of the future is clearly vulnerable to disruption by a range of different factors."

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  2. I like the way you have personalised this providing a "real-life" example as we need to prepare for different, albeit possible, futures.

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